Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
