A mere eight weeks prior that Morgan Rogers was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the source for the team's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit just three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant this season, even as the wins have piled up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the side registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a team that have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear curiously susceptible – however currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping their star man to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned Rogers now would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
